Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 1.536345 1.606300 1.679173 1.761020 1.850717 1.946410 2.056727
2026-01-25 1.427775 1.517919 1.614901 1.727743 1.856409 1.999767 2.173342
2026-02-01 1.361792 1.465784 1.580407 1.717465 1.878761 2.065036 2.300297
2026-02-08 1.307804 1.421360 1.548946 1.704908 1.893326 2.117691 2.411835
2026-02-15 1.261628 1.382065 1.519536 1.690727 1.902244 2.160991 2.511893
2026-02-22 1.231918 1.359592 1.507521 1.695054 1.931930 2.229643 2.647795
2026-03-01 1.186194 1.315703 1.467289 1.661827 1.911366 2.231093 2.691819
2026-03-08 1.150410 1.282052 1.437622 1.639630 1.902652 2.246114 2.753993
2026-03-15 1.121991 1.256056 1.415964 1.625992 1.903512 2.272867 2.833679
2026-03-22 1.112761 1.252897 1.422031 1.647476 1.951160 2.365718 3.018380
2026-03-29 1.107815 1.254570 1.433828 1.676413 2.009831 2.477476 3.243733
2026-04-05 1.087668 1.236451 1.419629 1.670040 2.018941 2.517543 3.358067
2026-04-12 1.071204 1.222986 1.411544 1.672316 2.041452 2.580751 3.521732
2026-04-19 1.042072 1.192567 1.380463 1.642017 2.015594 2.568356 3.552559
2026-04-26 1.023237 1.174754 1.365199 1.632640 2.019323 2.601588 3.668312
2026-05-03 1.004657 1.156724 1.349016 1.621207 2.019178 2.628254 3.774694
2026-05-10 0.986497 1.138742 1.332311 1.608297 2.015975 2.649392 3.872684
2026-05-17 0.975890 1.130226 1.327833 1.612232 2.038013 2.712957 4.062904
2026-05-24 0.952771 1.104826 1.300029 1.581971 2.006249 2.684056 4.058629
2026-05-31 0.934375 1.085265 1.279649 1.561729 1.989116 2.679006 4.104536
2026-06-07 0.919646 1.070228 1.265020 1.549281 1.983509 2.693311 4.194261
2026-06-14 0.917272 1.071416 1.272400 1.568886 2.029054 2.800181 4.509280
2026-06-21 0.917361 1.075812 1.284195 1.595260 2.086683 2.933774 4.918863